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The Risk

July 23, 2024

Walking the Razor's Edge

Life is filled with risks, some of which you will have to take. Walking the narrow path you inevitably reach a breaking point, where you either fall or cross. In this balancing act you will find out what you're really made of. I can almost guarantee you that some of the biggest and most important decisions in your life will be a risk you have to take, for nothing good comes easy in this life. Whatever it is you will have to work for it, and you will have to take a risk. It might not be your life at stake but it could be your comfort, it could be relationships, or your finances. Moving to a new city, starting a new career, or meeting a person for the first time can all involve some sort of risk. While it's easy to stay safe in your comfort zone and tightly tied up in bubble wrap - it will do you more damage than to get out there. History is filled with good examples of people taking big risks, just following a dream they had - dreams that were then realised because of this risk-taking - every dreamer has to walk that razor's edge, it's where they find their balance.

No doubt you have nay-sayers around you, comfortable people who have lived most of their lives in their bubbles, and perhaps because of this regret that they never took the risk, they then project it onto you. Telling you what you can and can't do. Somebody who fell down a tree as a kid might tell you to never climb one - knowing nothing about your balance, or not understanding what made them fall to begin with. If you ignore them, because you know your own limits, because you trust in your own ability and you climb that tree, you will see a world they could barely imagine existed. This new perspective from this higher ground will help you grow, and you will grow more confident in your ability. But be wary - overconfidence is a slow and insidious killer.

"Pride goes before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall." - Proverbs 16:18

With this in mind, be aware of the risks you take, and as you walk on the razor's edge guard your mind. Do not be overly critical and too safe, be smart about it.

The Gambler's Fallacy

Also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, the gambler's fallacy is the belief that - if an event has occurred less frequently than expected it is more likely to happen in the future. When rolling a six-sided die the probability of rolling a six is 16.667% for each roll. The gambler's fallacy claims that if you roll 5 times and never roll a single 6 your chances of rolling a six is now higher. This of course isn't true, the probability of rolling a 6 on your next roll remains the same. We fall into this fallacy because if we were to roll 6 dice the probability of one of them landing on 6 is about 66.5%. This highlights the example of the difficulty of understanding and calculating probabilities and outcomes, and luck is not something we rule over. Less seriously we can sum up the probability to 50/50 - either it happens or it doesn't.

While we can't control fate and the roll of a die, there are certain things we can control and that's where we should keep our focus. The decision to roll the die is ours, the decision to roll it again and again is ours, and to be deluded by gambler's fallacy is also within our control. When we are taking risks we can't always calculate the outcome, and we can't blame anyone or anything else but ourselves. When we take risks we are fully responsible for the outcome, whether it just affects us or others. Perhaps more humbly we can even say that whatever negative outcomes come our way are our own doing and whatever positive that comes is the blessings of luck. With this in mind let's not overthink our decisions, and while we take that leap of faith, should we fall, we should make sure to fall just right.

To Fall Just Right, Like a Knife from Height

A stunt person practices a single fall hundreds if not thousands of times, they work with the art of falling just right. The same principle applies to parkour - the hobby of the city adrenaline junkies whose risk-taking is their way of transport through the urban landscape. To fall just right is to fall with grace, and it is the acceptance and knowledge that you will inevitably fall, and when taking risks you will inevitably fail. What matters is how you deal with the landing and the consequences. It is to know that what is meant for you will not be missed, you will find a way. The path to success is paved with failures, each one a climbing stone on your journey toward your ultimate goal. Learn from these failures, and with every fall - get up and do it differently. Getting up is the easy part - it's the fall, and handling it which is the hardest part.

It takes grace, humility, and self-reflection to admit and realise our shortcomings, but it is ultimately these qualities that allow us to grow and do better. It is this which allows us to take the risk without fear, and which allows us to overcome the challenges that present themselves. When we are prepared for the fall it no longer scares us, and fear can't hold us back. With this self-assurance, we can take the right risks and reap the rewards from these endeavors.

The Greater the Risk, the Greater the Reward

It is well known that the more you stand to lose the more you also stand to gain. Your potential earnings are equal to what you're willing to bet. When we take risks we might be put off by the potential consequences, we worry about losing face, wasting our time, or perhaps something more dire. But you got to be willing to risk it, to show just how much you want it. Your greatest moments will come to you through this risk, and as you set out to fight against the odds - your adrenaline will kick in, if you trust your gut and your instincts you will overcome almost anything. The risk is a muse that will inspire and motivate you; the danger and the thrill will help you in whatever it is you do, be it creative or not. It pushes you further than you could ever push yourself. Deadlines work the same way, but deadlines can only motivate you if there's a risk behind them. Risk adds meaning in a way to your work, and it helps keep you focused on what you do. It's truly a motivating force.

Beyond motivating it's sometimes necessary for personal growth; to fully expand within yourself you need to conquer your fears. These are perhaps the most challenging risks for you personally. You might have constructed a safe bubble for years, or a carefully crafted personality: only to find yourself being unhappy living your constructed life. To get out of it and to become what you wish you must take the risks. The risks here are personal and social, but not life-threatening. However, do not underestimate the power these fears can have on you. Death is a trivial gamble, especially for those who feel as if they have nothing to lose. The mental game of fears is much more scary and feels a lot more serious, but when you take these risks and you overcome them you will find everything you have wished for waiting for you on the other side.

Take the risk, face your fears, and overcome them. Be the best version of yourself, and remember that the greatest risks you take will also be granting you the greatest rewards.

At One's Own Risk

With risks come rewards equal to the risk, and our superior achievements and accomplishments are done when we take on grievous risks and overcome them. When you take risks make sure to be prepared both for success and failure. Learn to grow from failure and use it as a powerful source of learning - propelling you forward with newfound knowledge. Be humble and do not let the failures define you, take it with grace and admit defeat when there’s no other option. No point in fighting a losing battle, put your focus elsewhere and move towards the next goal. Take responsibility for the risks and consequences, and do not blame exterior things or on other people. It’s always been your own choice. Do not be overconfident but be self-assured and trust in your ability, both to overcome but also to deal with the fall. Be graceful and soften the blows by landing just right when the inevitable setback comes your way. 

Do not doubt yourself, and do not worry too much - especially about your comfort. Get uncomfortable and learn to find your inner strength. Face your fears head on and you will find that whatever you want is hiding right behind them. Take the risk and use it as a motivating force to achieve what you want to achieve, let it be your muse, clench the moment in your fist, and overcome this world and its challenges, trials, and tribulations. Chase the dawn and do not give up when you lose your way in the night, keep going, keep risking it, what you stand to lose you stand to gain tenfold. Dare to dream and take the risk.